Nationally-Recognized Results from First-in-the-Nation New Hampshire Primaries

The university's polling operation, founded in 1999, 

gained national prominence during the 2000 New Hampshire presidential primary when it chronicled Senator John McCain's

 rise and eventual double-digit victory in the Republican Primary. Since then, the Institute has conducted polls on state and national issues and political campaigns.
Consistent with the Franklin Pierce University Fitzwater Center's commitment to providing students with outstanding educational experiences in professional environments, student volunteers and interns have immersed themselves in the political polling process.

The University has partnered with the Boston Herald to carry out a polling program that allows students to participate in survey design, data analysis and media relations - all while working to create a statistically-valid product with solid news value.

Veteran political analyst R. Kelly Myers, who conducted polling through five New Hampshire presidential primary seasons, worked with the Franklin Pierce University Polling from 2008 through the 2020 New Hampshire Primary.  During that time he served as a Senior Fellow in the Fitzwater Center, and also taught a political polling course as part of Franklin Pierce's First in the Nation (#FITN) collaboration. He built a firm foundation for The Fitzwater Center’s polling operations, which continue under Dr. Kristen Nevious and with the support of faculty and students.

For more information, please contact Dr. Kristen Nevious at (603) 899-1039 or by sending an email to  neviousk@joe-yan.net.

 

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Election Day Programming

The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication and PoliticsFitzU will also be streaming a number of Election Day segments beginning at noon on November 3. All content will be livestreamed from the Patterson Television Studios via Stretch Internet and to Facebook.

Programming includes:

12 p.m. ‒ Host Magnolia McCommish speaks with Derek Scalia, director of retention and diversity, and Dr. Christina Cliff, assistant professor of political science and security studies for “The Polls are Open: Vote”.

1 p.m. ‒ Host Madison Leslie speaks with Dr. Allan Rachlin, associate professor of sociology and human services for “Of Concern: Racial Equality”.

2 p.m. ‒ Host Madison Leslie will speak with KatieBeth Ryan, reference & instruction librarian for “Misinformation: Reading Between the Lines”.

3 p.m. ‒ Host Magnolia McCommish will speak with Dr. Leslie Buddington, assistant professor of psychology for “A Theory: The Psychology of Voting in a Pandemic”.

4 p.m. ‒ Host Madison Leslie will speak with Dr. Laura Christoph, assistant professor of health sciences, for “Wellness: Taking Care of Yourself in the Days Ahead".

5 p.m. ‒ Hosts Kaitlyn Acciardo and Casey Eldred will speak with Dr. Mack Bean, professor of economics and finance, for “Now What? The Pandemic or the Economy?”

6 p.m. ‒ Hosts Kaitlyn Acciardo and Casey Eldred will speak with Dr. Jed Donelan, assistant professor of philosophy and humanities and director of the New England Center for Civic Life for “Civil Conversations: How to Have One”.

Finally, hosts Kaitlyn Acciardo and Paul Lambert will host Pizza & Politics ‒ The Election Day Edition ‒ at 7 p.m. to cover a number of compelling topics with guests Dr. Frank Cohen and Dr. Christina Cliff.

Polling Reports from the 2020 Presidential Election

Poll Released November 16, 2020

"Rindge, NH. - A recent national poll of

1200 registered voters who voted in the November 3 presidential election showed that 81.4% of respondents reported that they are prepared to accept the outcome of the November 3 election; only 9.7% say they are not prepared to accept the results; 7.4% were unsure. 

While 33.4% of respondents felt President Donald J. Trump had demonstrated “a great deal of respect” or “some respect” for the institution of the Presidency since his inauguration in 2017, 49.9% felt that he had demonstrated “a great deal of disrespect” or “some disrespect.”

Following an election that was, for many people, unexpectedly violence free, 5 in 10 respondents report that they are worried that there will be violence because of the November 3 election through the January 20 Presidential Inauguration; 3 in 10 are not worried there will be violence and 2 in 10 are unsure. 

At a time when the pandemic is raging across the country, 8 in 10 respondents said they have worn masks “all or most of the time” when they’ve been out in public in the last month; another 9.6% reported wearing masks “some of the time.” Only 2.8% of respondents reported “never” wearing masks.  Against that backdrop personal preference, only 63% of respondents felt that there should be a national mandate, while 30.5% said there should not be a national mask mandate. 

And, as a second vaccine edges closer to final approval and public distribution, 50.7% of the respondents said they would get the vaccine when it became available, while an equal number of respondents said they would not (24.2%) or were unsure (24.2%).

Additional data were collected on race, the economy, voter use of media during the election, social media, disinformation, public health, and isolation.

Methodology 

The results of this survey are based on a mixed mode design of telephone and online surveys of “likely presidential election voters,” administered Monday, November 9, through Monday, November 16, 2020. The survey was conducted by GMRS Global Marketing Research Services, Inc., a non-partisan organization, and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with The Boston Herald. The purpose of the poll is for media release.  

A total of 1200 interviews of registered voters who voted in the November 3 presidential election were conducted. 

For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 420 completes, gathered through cell phones (60%) and landline (40%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained, and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English.  

The sample for the online portion of the survey was done by Dynata, which pulled random registered voters who have opted in to take a survey and then narrowed down the send to specific quota targets. The sample was directed into projects via an internal router and the surveys were conducted via GMRS’s online portal. A total of 17,367 invitations were sent out to achieve a total of 720 completes.  Online respondents could complete the survey via a mobile browser, and 41% did so. 

Quotas on age by male and female, race, political party, and region were derived from similar national surveys. Quotas are primarily used to balance the sample towards the known makeup of the universe we are calling into, as well as remove some biases towards people who are more likely to answer the phone at any given time (for example older Caucasian females).  As we were using a voter file for the calls, we can expire records within the cells that have been completed as to have a minimal effect on incidence and production.

The data are weighted.

The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Monday, November 9, through Monday, November 16, 2020 (N=1200) is +/- 3.00 percent with a confidence interval of 95%, and +- 2.00 percent with a confidence interval of 90%. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including response fatigue, mode effects, question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.

For more information about the survey please contact:
Dr. Kristen D. Nevious, Director, The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication, Franklin Pierce University
603.899.1039
neviousk@joe-yan.net"

 

- Dr. Kristen D. Nevious
November 16, 2020

READ THE BOSTON HERALD ARTICLE

pOLL rELEASED oCTOBER 28, 2020

"Rindge, NH. - A recent national poll of 1006 registered “likely presidential election voters” finds that among the 324 respondents who indicated that they had already voted, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the race with 66.5% to President Donald J. Trump’s 26.8%, with just 2.1% indicating that they had voted for another candidate. Among the 653 respondents who had not yet voted, the race is statistically tied, with 45.3% saying they were voting for Biden and 44.4% indicating that they were voting for Trump; only 5.4% said that they remained undecided while 2.9% said they were planning to vote for another candidate.

The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Friday, October 23, through Tuesday, October 27, 2020 (N=1006) is +/- 3.00 percent with a confidence interval of 95%.  

Methodology 

The results of this survey are based on a mixed mode design of telephone and online surveys of “likely presidential election voters,” administered Friday, October 23, through Tuesday, October 27, 2020. The survey was conducted by GMRS Global Marketing Research Services, Inc., a non-partisan organization, and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald. The purpose of the poll is for media release.  
 
A total of 1006 interviews of registered voters likely to vote in the November 3 presidential election were conducted. “Likely voters” were defined as people who reported that they were registered to vote in the United States and that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the November 3 presidential election.  
 
For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 406 completes, gathered through cell phones (60%) and landline (40%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained, and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English.  
 
For the online portion of the survey, the sample was done by Dynata, which pulled random registered voters that have opted in to take a survey and then narrowed down the send to specific quota targets. The sample was directed into projects via an internal router and the surveys were conducted via GMRS’s online portal. A total of 9180 invitations were sent out and 1315 respondents opted in to participate in the online survey to achieve a total of 600 completes.  Online respondents could complete the survey via a mobile browser, and 49% did so.  
 
Quotas on age by male and female, race and religion were derived from similar national surveys. Quotas are primarily used to balance the sample towards the known makeup of the universe we are calling into, as well as remove some biases towards people who are more likely to answer the phone at any given time (for example older Caucasian females).  As we were using a voter file for the calls, we can expire records within the cells that have been completed as to have a minimal effect on incidence and production.

The results of the survey are not weighted. 

The sampling margin of error for the data collected is +/- 3.00 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including mode effects, question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.

For more information about the survey please contact:
Dr. Kristen D. Nevious, Director, The Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication, Franklin Pierce University
603.899.1039
neviousk@joe-yan.net"

 

- Dr. Kristen D. Nevious
October 28, 2020

Poll Released October 6, 2020

"Rindge, NH. - A recent national poll of 1003 registered “likely presidential election voters” finds that former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the race with 51.2% to President Donald J. Trump’s 36.9%, with just 2.8% indicating that they would vote for another candidate and 7.8% undecided. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30, through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=1003) is +/- 3.09 percent with a confidence interval of 95%.  
 
The survey was in the field during a period marked by developments at the nation’s highest levels.  At 12:54 am on Friday, October 2, President Trump announced via Twitter that he had tested positive for COVID-19. Before the announcement, our sample (N=363) showed Biden with a 5.2% (N=363) lead. His lead in the post-announcement sample (N=565) is 20.2%. 

Methodology

The results of this survey are based on a mixed mode design of telephone and online surveys of “likely presidential election voters,” administered Wednesday, September 30, through Sunday, October 4, 2020. The survey was conducted by GMRS Global Marketing Research Services, Inc., a non-partisan organization, and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald. The purpose of the poll is for media release.  
 
A total of 1003 interviews of registered voters likely to vote in the November 3 presidential election were conducted. “Likely voters” were defined as people who reported that they were registered to vote in the United States and that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the November 3 presidential election.  
 
For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 403 completes, gathered through cell phone (65%) and landline (35%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English.  

For the telephone portion of the survey, a national random sample of registered voters was purchased from L2 Political, normalized by age and proportionate by four regions: East/Midwest/South/Pacific. The telephone portion of the survey yielded 403 completes, gathered through cell phone (65%) and landline (35%) telephone numbers. All telephone interviews were conducted by paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. 

For the online portion of the survey, the sample was done by Dynata, which pulled random registered voters that have opted in to take a survey and then narrowed down the send to specific quota targets. The sample was directed into projects via an internal router and the surveys were conducted via GMRS’s online portal. A total of n=1254 respondents that have opted in to participate in online surveys were pulled to get the total 600 completes. Online respondents were allowed to complete the survey via mobile browser, and 42% did so.

Quotas on age by male and female, race and religion were derived from similar national surveys. Quotas are primarily used to balance the sample towards the known makeup of the universe we are calling into, as well as remove some biases towards people who are more likely to answer the phone at any given time (for example older Caucasian females).  As we were using a voter file for the calls, we can expire records within the cells that have been completed as to have a minimal effect on incidence and production.

The results of the survey are not weighted. 

Because this survey was in the field when President Trump announced at 12:54 am on Friday, October 2, via Twitter that he had tested positive for COVID-19, the research team took the opportunity to compare the data before that date/time with the data collected after that date/time.  Any interpretation of results must acknowledge the margin of error that dividing the data set yielded.

Telephone interviews ended at 3 pm on Thursday, October 1; the last online survey that day was done at 11 pm. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30 through Thursday, October 1, 2020 (N=383) at 3 pm is +/- 5.01 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

Telephone interviews began again at 9 am on Friday, October 2; online survey data collection started back up at 9 am on Friday, October 2. The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Friday, October 2, through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=620) is +/- 3.94 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

The sampling margin of error for the data collected from Wednesday, September 30 through Sunday, October 4, 2020 (N=1003) is +/- 3.09 percent with a confidence interval of 95%. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including mode effects, question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

 

- Dr. Kristen D. Nevious
October 6, 2020

Poll Released February 9, 2020

"Rindge, NH. - A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the s

tate of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Just a few weeks ago former Vice President Joe Biden seemed to have some momentum, but the results of the Iowa Caucus have had a big impact on Granite State voters. In our most recent poll, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (20%) has risen to statistical tie with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (23%). Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s support has not changed over the past week (16%), and former Vice President Joe Biden is now polling in fourth place at 14 percent.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears stable. The President has an approval rating of 77 percent today among Republican voters, stable with results from our last poll, but down slightly from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 71 percent but continues to decline. Former Illinois Representative Joe Walsh (6%) and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld (8%) continue to trail the President by a wide margin.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered February 5-8, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (75%) and landline (25%) telephone numbers. A total of 952 interviews were conducted, including n=512 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=440 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11 presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 512 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.3 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 440 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum

- R. Kelly Myers
February 9, 2020

Poll Released February 2, 2020

"Rindge, NH.– A recent Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald/NBC10 Boston, NECN & Telemundo poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Our most recent poll shows Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (31%) continues to hold a slight lead over Biden (24%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%). Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (8%) continues to poll in fourth place. Among likely Republican primary voters, recent events have helped bolster President Donald Trump’s approval rating to 90 percent, the highest since October (81%) and September (83%). The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 72 percent, stable since our last poll.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 29 – February 1, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. 

A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (70%) and landline (30%) telephone numbers. A total of 892 interviews were conducted, including n=454 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=438. The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 438 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 454 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.6 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set

- R. Kelly Myers
February 2, 2020

Poll Released January 27, 2020

"Rindge, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a Democratic presidential primary still in movement. Just a few weeks ago former Vice President Joe Biden seemed to have some momentum, but our most recent poll shows Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (29%) appears to now hold a slight lead over Biden (22%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (16%). Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10%) is still polling strongly, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar remains competitive at five percent.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears to be remaining stable. The President has an approval rating of 77 percent today among Republican voters, down slightly from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the New Hampshire primary were held today remains high at 72 percent but continues to decline. Former Illinois Representative Joe Walsh and Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld each attract just seven percent of the vote, up from four percent in the last poll.

Methodology

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 23-26, 2020. 

The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (70%) and landline (30%) telephone numbers. A total of 736 interviews were conducted, including n=407 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=329 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 407 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.9 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 329 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 5.4 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum  |  See the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
January 27, 2020

Poll Released January 13, 2020

"Portsmouth, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds a shift in favor of Joe Biden. In October, the Democratic race was a statistical dead-heat between Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren (25%), Former Vice President, Joe Biden (24%) and Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders (22%). Today, Biden (26%) appears to be leading Sanders (22%), and Warren has dropped to 18 percent. South Bend, Indiana Mayor, Pete Buttigieg attracts 7 percent of the vote, and late entrant Michael Bloomberg is at 4 percent.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating appears to be dropping slightly. The President has an approval rating of 76 percent today, down from October (81%) and September (83%).

The percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today remains high at 79 percent. Former Illinois Representative, Joe Walsh and Former Massachusetts Governor, Bill Weld each attract just four percent of the vote. 

Going into the Democratic debate in Des Moines on Tuesday, January 14 promises to capture the attention on many New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Seventy-seven percent of Democratic primary voters said that they definitely (29%) or probably (49%) will watch it, which means it

Methodology could have a significant impact on the race. Less than one-half of likely Republican primary voters said that they definitely (13%) or probably (28%) will watch it.

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered January 8-12, 2020. The survey was conducted by RKM Research and Communications and paid for by Franklin Pierce University in collaboration with the Boston Herald and NBC10 Boston. The purpose of the poll is for media release.

All interviews were conducted by telephone using paid, trained and supervised interviewers. The survey was conducted in English. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (81%) and landline (19%) telephone numbers. A total of 836 interviews were conducted, including n=434 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=402 likely Republican presidential primary voters. “Likely voters” are defined as residents of New Hampshire who are registered to vote and self-report that they “definitely” or “probably” will vote in the February 11th presidential primary. A probabilistic sample of cell phone and landline numbers was purchased from Survey Sampling, Inc. The results of the survey are unweighted.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 434 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.7 percent.

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 402 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.9 percent.

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum |  See the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
January 13, 2020

Poll Released October 14, 2019

"Portsmouth, NH – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds modest shifting support among Democratic voters, while Republicans are largely standing firm with President Trump.

Among likely Republican primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains virtually unchanged since the last poll conducted in early September. Trump’s overall approval rating among Republicans was 83 percent in early September and is 81 percent today. And the percentage of Republicans who strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president was 54 percent a month ago, and 55 percent today. Only 19 percent of Republican primary voters disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president in the most recent poll.

However, the percentage of Republican voters who would vote for Trump if the primary were held today was 88 percent a month ago, and 71 percent today, a 17-point decline. Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld’s support increased from 3 percent in early September to 14 percent today. The poll included questions speculating about what would happen if other Republicans were to enter the race, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Ohio Governor John Kasich and Utah Senator Mitt Romney. Relatively few Republican primary voters indicate that they would vote for any of these 3 candidates if they were to enter the race. Haley would attract 9 percent of the vote, Kasich would attract 9 percent and Romney would attract 12 percent.

Among Democratic primary voters, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (30%) was leading his two primary rivals, former Vice President Joe Biden (21%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%) in the September poll. Today, the Democratic race is a statistical dead-heat between Warren (24%), Biden (24%) and Sanders (22%).

The poll included questions speculating as to what would happen if other Democrats were to enter the race, including former First Lady Michelle Obama and Disney CEO Bob Iger. Iger remains largely unknown among Democratic voters and only 4 percent indicated that they would vote for him if he were to enter the race. But if Michelle Obama were to enter the race, it would change things dramatically. Twenty-six percent of Democrats would vote for her, making her the new front runner. Under this scenario, Obama (26%) would lead Warren (20%), Biden (20%) and Sanders (15%). She would take away 4 points from Warren, 4 points from Biden and 7 points from Sanders.

Going into the Democratic debate at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio, on Tuesday, October 15, 84 percent of Democratic primary voters said that they definitely (42%) or probably (42%) will watch it, which means it could have a significant impact on the race. Nearly one-half of likely Republican primary voters said that they definitely (12%) or probably (36%) will watch it."

View the Full Data Set  |  Read the Memorandum |  See the Questions

- R. Kelly Myers
October 14, 2019

Poll Released September 11, 2019

"Portsmouth, NH. – A recent poll of registered “likely presidential primary voters” in the state of New Hampshire finds that President Donald Trump has a statewide approval rating of 47 percent. Fifty-one percent of all voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing as President.

Among likely Republican presidential primary voters, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is very solid at 83 percent. President Trump (88%) also holds a commanding lead over former Massachusetts Governor, Bill Weld (3%) and former Illinois Representative, Joe Walsh (1%). Seven percent of likely Republican presidential primary voters currently report that they are unsure which candidate they support.

Going into the Houston presidential debate, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (29%) holds a lead over former Vice President Joe Biden (21%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (17%) among likely registered Democrats who plan to vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary. California Senator Kamala Harris (6%), entrepreneur Andrew Yang (5%) and South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (4%) currently constitute a group of second-tier candidates. Nine percent of likely Democratic presidential primary voters currently report that they are unsure which candidate they support. 

Methodology 

These results are based on a telephone survey of “likely New Hampshire presidential primary voters” administered September 4-10, 2019. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of cell phone (84%) and landline (16%) telephone numbers. The poll was conducted by RKM Research and Communications. A total of 839 interviews were conducted, including n=425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters and n=414 likely Republican presidential primary voters. 

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 425 likely Democratic presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent. 

The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 414 likely Republican presidential primary voters is +/- 4.8 percent. 

In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response."

View the full Data Set |  Read the Memorandum

- R. Kelly Myers
September 11, 2019

Poll Released August 21, 2019

"A recent poll of registered voters in the state of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump (39%) trailing a Democratic presidential candidate (54%) by a 15-point margin using a “generic ballot” question. Without knowing who the actual candidate will end winning the Democratic presidential nomination, it is far too early to draw any significant conclusions from these results. Still, these early numbers suggest that the President Trump could face a competitive race in the Granite State.

These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted by RKM Research and Communication, August 9-20, 2019. The survey is based on complete and useable interviews with 403 randomly selected registered voters in New Hampshire. A dual-frame sample design was used to include a combination of landline (n=166) and cellular (n=237) telephone numbers. The sampling margin of error for a sample size of 403 respondents is +/- 4.9 percent." 

- R. Kelly Myers
August 21, 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Polling Reports from the 2016 Presidential Election

Polling data below is available upon request

November

Nov. 6, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll Data Tables-
• National poll Slides

October

Oct. 16, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll Data Tables

September

Sept. 25, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll Data Tables

Sept. 4, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll Data Tables

July

July 12-16, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll questions
• National poll Data Tables

May

May 25-28, 2016 - FPU / Herald National Political Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• National poll questions
• National poll Data Tables

February

February 2-6, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Republican poll Data Tables

February 2-6, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Democratic poll Data Tables

January

January 26-30, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Republican poll Data Tables

January 26-30, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Democratic poll Data Tables

January 20-24, 2016 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Republican poll Data Tables

January 20-24, 2016 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Democratic poll Data Tables

December

December 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Democratic poll Data Tables

December 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Republican poll Data Tables

 October

October 19, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Democratic poll Data Tables

October 18, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

• Republican poll Data Tables

August

August 11, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

August 11, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers

March

March 30, 2015 - FPU / Herald Republican Poll - R. Kelly Myers

March 31, 2015 - FPU / Herald Democratic Poll - R. Kelly Myers